Will The Promise of Artificial Intelligence Really Outweigh The Risks?
There is a lot of hype around artificial intelligence but can it live up to its promise and how do businesses manage the risks?
Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and the hype surrounding the technology are rising exponentially, but can the technology truly live up to its billing and how can businesses manage the contingent risks?
Forbes magazine recently claimed that, “More progress has been achieved on artificial intelligence.in the past five years than in the past five decades.”[1]
“I believe we are seeing the acceleration of possibilities and the acceleration of risk [in AI], Ulrich Homann, a Distinguished Architect in the Cloud and Enterprise business at Microsoft, told guests at Zurich Insurance Group’s annual Global Risk Managers Summit in Edinburgh in September 2017. “Both are something we have to understand and really start to harness, both for benefits and for risk management.” The opportunities certainly seem boundless, as automation opens the door for self-driving vehicles, digital health care, robotic companions, and a host of as yet unconceived of applications and possibilities.
PWC projects that AI could contribute as much as USD 15.7 trillion to the global economy in 2030, more than the combined output of China and India today. That figure includes a USD 6.6 trillion increase in productivity and USD 9.1 rise in consumption.[2]
“Our research also shows that 45% of total economic gains by 2030 will come from product enhancements, stimulating consumer demand,” PWC said in the report. “This is because AI will drive greater product variety, with increased personalization, attractiveness and affordability over time.”
Jobs at risk
Those gains are likely to come at a price, however. According to a report published by the McKinsey Global Institute in January 2017, “Given currently demonstrated technologies, very few occupations—less than 5 percent—are candidates for full automation. However, almost every occupation has partial automation potential, as a proportion of its activities could be automated. We estimate that about half of all the activities people are paid to do in the world’s workforce could potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies. That amounts to almost USD 15 trillion in wages.”[3]
