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Turning Market Uncertainty Into Fixed Income Opportunity

Turning Market Uncertainty Into Fixed Income Opportunity

“I keep hearing the same thing from clients, advisors and policy makers: uncertainty,” says Sara Devereux, Head of Fixed Income at Vanguard. “But here’s the thing: uncertainty creates both risk and opportunity.”

The key is having the right approach to capture that opportunity. While many asset management firms rely on a few star portfolio managers who pursue momentum-driven investment approaches, Vanguard has embraced a strategy that has paid dividends even during volatile times.

Small gains. Big consistency.

After more than two decades in fixed income, Devereux says she’s never seen such a rich opportunity set for bond investors. But capitalizing on those opportunities requires managers with unwavering discipline, as well as the expertise of a team that uses a systematic process that trumps attempts to hit home runs via big bets.

“We focus on repeatable, reliable strategies—what I call ‘hitting singles and doubles,’” says Devereux. Those strategies include grinding through security selection and using technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to augment the team’s expertise.

Those singles and doubles compound over time. Vanguard believes that alpha generation isn’t luck, it’s a process, and it comes from precision, not prediction.

“The other side of discipline is patience. When the market isn’t paying you enough for the risk, we scale back and hold dry powder. When opportunity comes, we’re ready to put that capital to work.”  Sara Devereux Head of Fixed Income at Vanguard

This systematic approach allows Vanguard to identify opportunities when others see only risk. In March 2023, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse triggered panic selling, but Vanguard’s team turned to their established research framework.

“For 20 different regional banks, our team already had financial models built,” says Arvind Narayanan, Co-Head of Investment Grade Credit at Vanguard. While competitors were frozen by fear, Vanguard deployed several billion dollars of capital into five fundamentally sound banks identified through Vanguard’s proprietary stress tests.

100% of Vanguard's active credit funds outperformed their benchmarks in 2023. Methodology: (*includes funds solely managed by Vanguard (e.g., ex. High-Yield Corporate) / funds that included Arvind's team's investment-grade banking trade)
“We’re repeating this process over and over again to be able to generate returns no matter what the economy is doing. There are often mispriced opportunities if you’ve done your homework.” Arvind Narayanan Co-Head of Investment Grade Credit at Vanguard
A deep bench

Vanguard’s Fixed Income team has more than 200 portfolio managers, traders, research analysts, and risk experts.

“Our team includes professionals who’ve navigated multiple credit cycles, interest rate environments and market dislocations,” says Devereux. “That institutional memory is invaluable when markets turn volatile.”

What differentiates this bench is stability and experience. Paul Malloy, Head of Municipal Bonds at Vanguard, leads a 50-person team that, as of 09/30/2025, averages 14 years of industry experience. 

“You have to have a very deep bench of experts that coordinates with one another so that you can make the best investment decision possible and make it quickly.”  Paul Malloy Head of Municipal Bonds at Vanguard

That deep bench can enable quick pivots when the markets turn. When the U.S. municipal bond market saw a huge influx of cash in the fall of 2023, Vanguard’s Municipals team worked to find the right opportunities among the 1 million US municipal bonds, which come from more than 50,000 state and local entities, all with their own revenue streams and risk profiles.

“Evergreen research is part of our secret sauce. We have internal ratings on everything, so we leaned on our bench of analysts to quickly identify the best candidates to buy or sell.” Grace Boraas Active Municipal Portfolio Manager at Vanguard
On average, Vanguard's active municipal bond funds outperformed their average peer by 0.94% in 2023. Methodology: Calculated by taking the average of the difference between all share classes of Vanguard’s active municipal bond funds and their respective Morningstar peer groups’ average return in 2023. Source: Morningstar
The Network Effect

Vanguard’s team-based approach, fueled by its deep bench, ensures that no single individual determines portfolio success.

“Every portfolio benefits from the best ideas across our entire Fixed Income team,” Devereux says. The firm’s best insights don’t remain siloed within single funds; they’re methodically deployed across all eligible portfolios, ensuring that investors benefit from collective expertise—rather than being limited by the narrow focus of single-manager approaches in volatile markets.

“Every day we find opportunities, and we try to make those opportunities work for as many Vanguard clients across as many funds as possible.”  Daniel Shaykevich Co-Head of the Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt team at Vanguard

The collaborative nature of this approach is especially valuable during complex market events such as Covid, when Shaykevich worked with other team leaders to identify when the Federal Reserve was likely to provide major support to the markets.

“Because of the scale of major market situations like Covid, it would be very difficult for one team focused on one part of the market to understand what the implications were for the whole market.”  Brian Quigley Head of Mortgage-Backed Securities at Vanguard
In 2020, Vanguard’s Core Bond Fund outperformed its benchmark by 2.66% and outperformed 95% of its peer group. Methodology: Vanguard Core Bond Admiral Shares 2020 excess return over its benchmark (Bloomberg US Agg Float Adj Index). Vanguard Core Bond Fund ranked in the 5% of its Intermediate Core Bond Morningstar peer group in 2020, outperforming 95% of the competitors in the category.
Chart as of 9/30/2025  The performance data shown represent past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so investors’ shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data cited. For performance data current to the most recent month-end, visit our website at vanguard.com/performance. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index. Figures represent average annual returns and include the reinvestment of all dividends and any capital gains distributions. All returns are net of expenses. 
Performance and Cost Multiplier

The firm’s cost discipline reflects its ownership structure. Vanguard is owned by its funds, which are owned by Vanguard’s fund shareholder clients. “We’re not trying to maximize profits for external shareholders,” Devereux explains. “Every basis point we save allows investors to keep more of their returns.”

Vanguard has built what Devereux calls “a performance and cost multiplier,” powered by industry-leading returns and accelerated by the lowest expense ratios in asset management.

Over the last 10 years, 85% of Vanguard’s active bond funds outperformed their peer group average over the last decade. Methodology: For the 10-year period ended September 30, 2025, 41 of 48 Vanguard active bond funds outperformed their peer group averages; results will vary for other time periods. Only funds with a minimum 10-year history were included in the comparison. (Source: LSEG Lipper).

Vanguard’s consistent, repeatable strategies, application of time-tested approaches across portfolios and its deep bench of experts work together to create what Devereux calls disciplined opportunism. “We’re not ‘low risk’—we are disciplined and opportunistic risk,” she says. “We take the right risk, at the right time, in the right size.”

“That approach matters, so bonds can do what they’re meant to do: provide stability, income and diversification in your portfolio,” says Devereux.

Visit vanguard.com to obtain a Vanguard fund prospectus, or, if available, a summary prospectus, which contains investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other information; read and consider carefully before investing. 

All investments are subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Bond funds are subject to the risk that an issuer will fail to make payments on time, and that bond prices will decline because of rising interest rates or negative perceptions of an issuer's ability to make payments.

Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor of the Vanguard Funds.