Air Travel’s Skyrocketing Popularity Is a Headwind to Net Zero

Air travel is on the ascent. The pandemic is in our rearview mirror, with forecasts showing that in 2024, jet fuel demand will catch up to pre-Covid levels. Current trends show this trajectory, with the US Transportation Security Administration reporting a 15% year-over-year increase in travel in August.

This popularity is a boon to airlines’ bottom lines, but much like the industry itself, things aren’t quite that simple. The release of pent-up passenger demand represents a huge obstacle for an industry that has set its sights on sustainability.

Air travel will nearly triple from 2019 to 2050. To fly those 11 billion passengers around the world will require burning 1.92 million metric tonnes (13.9 million barrels) of jet fuel per day – more than double the 938,400 metric tonnes (6.8 million barrels) burned in 2019.

This increasing demand flies in the face of lowering CO2 emissions, making it more important than ever that airlines incorporate sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) into their operations.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), whose members represent 82% of global air traffic, sees SAFs as a viable option to decarbonize the sector, particularly for the long-haul flights (exceeding 3,000 kilometers) that account for 80% of its CO2 emissions.

Developed from a number of sources – waste oils, biomass like wood chips, renewable energy – SAFs promise to be a truly net-zero option versus conventional kerosene. Importantly, such “drop-in” fuels can immediately be used by existing aircraft and airport infrastructure.

Based on the current market, SAFs could meet 5% of demand by 2030, but that is not nearly enough. Government regulation is a huge driver of development and adoption, however, and policy is beginning to match ambition. In late April, the EU amended its ReFuelEU Aviation proposal, which sets the bloc’s SAF incorporation targets at 2% in 2025, 6% in 2030 and 70% by 2050.

While legislation gives EU nations a degree of regulatory certainty, it doesn’t provide tangible incentives. In the absence of tax breaks, grants or government subsidies, airlines are still on their own to incorporate SAFs into their fuel mix. This is particularly true for those subject to the blending targets (and non-compliance fines) established by ReFuelEU. A lack of coordinated international regulation risks creating a distorted market that gives non-EU airlines a competitive advantage.

Currently, SAFs represent a mere 0.1% of global jet fuel use – a drop in the bucket. To reach just 2% by 2025 would require a production increase of 1,900%.

The private sector can build on regulatory momentum and continue bending the emissions curve by supporting the SAF suppliers the industry will rely on. Lufthansa Group, for instance, is advancing key SAF technologies based on biogenic waste, renewable electrical energy (Power-to-Liquid) and even sunlight (Sun-to-Liquid).

This makes SAFs a key plank in meeting the group’s sustainability targets, along with continued investments in fleet renewal (200 new fuel-efficient planes will be delivered by 2030) and in hardware (adhesives films which replicate sharkskin) and software (AI-powered operational efficiency) solutions, to mention some examples.

Lufthansa Group sets itself specific efficiency targets for reducing carbon emissions in its core business segment that are in line with the Paris Agreement and have been validated by the internationally recognized Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) supported by the United Nations.

In keeping with its goal of achieving a neutral CO2 balance by 2050, Lufthansa Group is already one of the world’s largest purchasers of fuel made from biogenic residues. This commitment to innovation ensures that Lufthansa Group is actively shaping further development of the aviation industry.