No one likes to invest at the peak of equity markets. With prices near all-time highs, and numerous risks on the horizon, it is not surprising investors are worried about a significant market pullback negatively impacting their portfolio returns.
Instead of fretting over potential risk scenarios (See “What could go wrong?”), one exercise I like to do when faced with a seemingly hard-to-solve problem is to turn it upside down. Thinking about a problem in a different light often helps me to uncover hidden beliefs about the question I am trying to answer. As Charlie Munger says: “Invert, always invert.”
For concerned investors, a more relevant question to ask, in my view, is: What happens if one were to only invest at market peaks? (Hint: the answer may surprise you.)
Let me introduce you to Dan. He has only invested at equity market peaks, right before a significant market correction.
For Investors, Time in the Market is More Important than Timing the Market.
S&P500 Index Performance Over the Past Half-Century
Most investors, however, can probably do much better than this, with some disciplined, regular investments and regular rebalancing of portfolios. Even a simple dollar-cost-averaging into the market through the business cycle on a regular basis would deliver better results than this extreme buy-at-the-peak-and-hold strategy. Ideally, everyone wants to buy at market bottoms and sell at the peak. However, it is nearly impossible to get it right on a consistent basis and do to it with enough capital to achieve your long-term goals and financial objectives. (Also see “Principles for successful investing.”)
While the above is an extreme hypothetical illustration, there are three key takeaways for investors:
Audrey Goh is Senior Cross-asset Strategist at Standard Chartered Wealth Management’s CIO office.